ScienceDaily (Dec. 3, 2008) — A new universal test to predict the risk of someone succumbing to major depression has been developed by UCL (University College London) researchers. The online tool, predictD, could eventually be used by family doctors and local clinics to identify those at risk of depression for whom prevention might be most useful.
The risk algorithm, developed by a team led by UCL Professors Michael King and Irwin Nazareth, was tested in 6,000 people visiting their family doctor in six countries in Europe (UK, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Estonia). Its accuracy was also tested in nearly 3,000 GP attendees in a further country, Chile, in South America. The study, published in the Archives of General Psychiatry, followed-up the participants at six and 12 months. The team modelled their approach on risk indices for heart disease, which provide a percentage risk estimate over a given time period. The algorithm was as accurate at predicting future episodes of depression as similar instruments developed in Europe to predict future risk of heart problems...
Professor Michael King, UCL Department of Mental Health Sciences, says: “Depression is a common problem throughout the world, but although we know how to treat it, we know very little about how to prevent its onset. We have ways of predicting the onset of heart disease or stroke, but none for predicting people’s risk of major depression. Our study is one of the first to develop a risk algorithm for just this purpose.”...
"Major depression is now a leading cause of illness and disability world-wide and reducing its prevalence is one of the greatest public health challenges of the twenty-first century. Depression will rank second to cardiovascular disease as a global cause of disability by 2020. Up to a quarter of people who visit their doctor experience major depression, with relapses frequently occurring for up to 10 years.”...
A website has been set up for the risk algorithm.
Journal reference:
Michael King et al. Development and validation of an international risk prediction algorithm for episodes of major depression in general practice attendees. Archives of General Psychiatry, December 2008
This online test uses risk factors long recognized among counselors as contributing to depression:
- work difficulties
- poor social support network
- family mental and physical health problems
- discimination
- low mood in the past
- personal health problems
- inability to perform daily tasks
- pain
- feelings - not calm/peaceful, low energy levels, downhearted/low
- inability to engage in social activities
I took the test. This is my result: "Given the answers to the questionnaire, your chance of becoming depressed over the forthcoming 12 months is 5.682%, as compared to the average chance of 7.73% in the European countries in which the instrument was developed." So I should be okay for another year! Of course, the limits are obvious, as any one of these risk factors could drastically change according to the events of my life, but I suppose that is the 5.682% part. Here's hoping you are also doing well.
Theoretically it may not seem possible to predict depression due to the multiple variable factors. However, knowing history and 'outlook' of the individual, I think it may be possible to reasonably predict the likelihood of depression. What I mean is this: if one has a history of dealing with stress, controversy, and obstacles with a positive attitude and is always 'looking on the bright side', one can reasonably say: "on a normal basis this person will not be depressed."
ReplyDeleteIf one is always pessimistic, struggles with stress, overly dramatic or histrionic, looking outward for coping strategies (alcohol, drugs, excitement, escapism behavior, materialistic, wants to change something every time they don't feel right), or the person doesn't try to work through difficulties...gives up easily or escapes, or has trouble finishing things whenever it becomes difficult, one could possibly predict this person could be more prone to depression and may be dealing with depression in the future.